"One newly created account on Polymarket invested $30,000 Friday on Maduro's exit, pocketing $436,760 after he was captured. In December, someone made nearly $1 million on Polymarket after winning 22 of 23 bets on what topics would rank on Google's annual list of the most searched terms, according to iGamingToday. Several accounts reportedly earned a big haul in late 2025 with bets on the timing of OpenAI's product release."
""It just defies belief that this wasn't insider information," gambling industry consultant Dustin Gouker tells Axios of the Maduro bet. Between the lines: Trading on inside information might be against the rules on prediction market platforms, but that doesn't mean it's against the law. The latest: A House Democrat is now introducing a bill that would make such trading illegal for government officials, Axios' Andrew Solender reports."
Prediction markets have produced several high-profile suspicious trades that yielded large profits. A new Polymarket account turned a $30,000 bet on Maduro's exit into $436,760 after his capture. Another bettor won nearly $1 million by correctly predicting 22 of 23 Google most-searched topics. Several accounts reportedly profited in late 2025 from bets about the timing of OpenAI product releases. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulates prediction markets. Rep. Ritchie Torres introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 to make such trading illegal for government officials. Some advocates argue insider-informed trades can provide useful public signals.
Read at Axios
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