The Federal Reserve is about to have an extremely awkward meeting | Fortune

"Wall Street is looking ahead to a highly anticipated meeting of Federal Reserve policymakers, who are widely expected to lower interest rates for the first time this year amid relentless pressure from the White House and deteriorating employment data. The Federal Open Market Committee's two-day meeting will start on Tuesday. On Wednesday afternoon, it will announce its policy decision. According to CME's FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in 96.4% odds for a quarter-point cut and 3.6% odds for a half-point cut. The benchmark rate is currently 4.25%-4.5%."

"Senate Republicans hope to confirm Stephen Miran as a Fed governor on Monday so that he can participate when the meeting starts on Tuesday. His decision not to resign from his White House economic adviser role while he serves on the Fed board and instead take a leave of absence is unprecedented, with critics saying it leaves him too vulnerable to pressure from President Donald Trump-who is already trying to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Miran has also previously criticized the Fed's consensus-based approach and accused it of "groupthink." Before joining the administration, he proposed reforms that would weaken Fed independence and argued that monetary policy would be better served with some arguments."

"Either way, get ready for more contested votes rather than the typical unanimous decisions. In a note on Friday, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said he expects the upcoming meeting to feature two or three dissents for a larger cut"

The Federal Open Market Committee meets for two days starting Tuesday and markets heavily favor a quarter-point rate cut from the current 4.25%-4.5% range. The announcement will include a dot plot of updated forecasts for rates, inflation and GDP, followed by a press briefing from Chairman Jerome Powell. Senate Republicans seek to confirm Stephen Miran so he can vote at the meeting despite his taking a leave from his White House role rather than resigning. Critics call that unprecedented and warn of heightened political influence. Analysts expect multiple dissents instead of a unanimous decision.

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