"Iran reportedly fired on at least one tanker and turned back more than 20 vessels attempting transit on April 18, pushing Polymarket's April 30 normalization odds down 41% to 28%."
"Iran's Foreign Minister had declared the Strait completely open to commercial vessels on April 17, citing a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire, which led to a temporary drop in oil prices and a rally in equity markets."
"The April 30 Polymarket contract dropped 41% from its recent peak, while the May contract settled back to approximately 69% Yes as of April 18, following the reimposition of restrictions."
On April 18, 2026, Iran reimposed shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, causing Polymarket's contract odds for normalization by April 30 to fall to 28%. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps gunboats fired on a tanker and turned back over 20 vessels. The May normalization market remains at 69% Yes, down from a peak of 82%. A full Yes resolution requires a 7-day moving average of 60+ ship arrivals before May 31, 2026. Oil prices dropped around 10% following the initial announcement of reopening.
Read at news.bitcoin.com
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