Escalating geopolitical risk continued to dominate global markets' concerns, with safe-haven demand keeping the dollar index anchored near a multi-week high.
"Oil prices are higher again this morning, but Treasury yields are lower as the risks to economic growth begin to take precedence over the risks to inflation," Oxford Economics said in a note on Monday.
HYBL attempts to solve the income problem by combining senior loans, high-yield corporate bonds, and debt tranches from U.S. collateralized loan obligations (CLOs). The result is a portfolio with lower duration and lower volatility compared to traditional high-yield funds, while still targeting high current income with monthly distributions.
The U.S. Treasury bond market has finally responded to the Mideast war, giving its assessment of the energy shock's severity and the war's effect on U.S. fiscal imbalance and inflation.
USHY seeks to track the investment results of the ICE BofA US High Yield Constrained Index, composed of U.S. dollar-denominated, high yield corporate bonds, providing broad exposure in a low-cost wrapper.
Through Community Facilities Districts (CFD), Municipal Utility Districts (MUD), Public Improvement Districts (PID), Community Development Districts (CDD) and reimbursement districts (RD), builders can potentially shift infrastructure costs off their balance sheets and onto special districts that homebuyers ultimately absorb through property taxes without potentially adding debt to the builder's books.
"The historical evidence reveals a striking pattern: government bonds have repeatedly generated substantial real losses during these extreme episodes. They have even underperformed equities and real estates which are traditionally regarded as risky assets."
The country is almost certain to enter the next shock more indebted than we have ever been before, which may significantly hamper our ability to marshal an appropriate response. The U.S. has never experienced an economic shock as indebted as we are today. This situation leaves the U.S. immensely vulnerable.
Crude oil breaking above the USD 100 threshold has revived inflation concerns, pushing US Treasury yields higher across the curve. However, Friday's labour market report revealed a significant deterioration in employment conditions, with the economy losing 92,000 jobs in February, its largest contraction in several months.
In my view, interest rates are more likely than not going to head lower over the course of 2026 and into 2027. I'm not saying we're due for a pandemic-like selloff, but I do think that weakness in the labor market is likely more protracted than the government data suggest. As such, I do think the makeup of the Federal Reserve, and which way many of its presidents and voting members lean (toward providing support for the labor market over battling inflation) could lead to much faster rate cuts than many think.
I have not touched a paper note for months. I don't even have money to pay for a taxi. Now we walk a lot, for long distances. Palestinians in Gaza use the Israeli currency, the shekel, in their daily transactions, and depend on Israel to supply banks with new banknotes and coins.
The biggest driver for PCY over the next 12 months is U.S. interest rate trajectory. When the Fed cuts rates, two things benefit emerging market sovereign debt. First, U.S. Treasury yields fall, making PCY's 6.1% yield more attractive to income-focused investors. Second, rate cuts typically weaken the dollar, reducing the debt servicing burden for emerging market governments that borrow in dollars.
President Donald Trump said Thursday that he is instructing "representatives" to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds, arguing the move would lower interest rates and monthly housing payments. In a Truth Social post, Trump said the directive was possible because Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have "$200 billion in cash." He added the bond purchases would help "make the cost of owning a home more affordable."
The JPMorgan Active Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:JBND) charges a premium for active management, but has attracted $5.4 billion since its October 2023 launch by delivering outperformance when markets get volatile. The real test ahead is whether managers can continue generating alpha as corporate bond spreads compress to levels not seen in two decades. The Spread Squeeze That Could Define 2026 Corporate bond spreads have compressed to their tightest levels in two decades, creating a challenging environment for active managers.