"This is a system shock," says Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group. "You have a material energy supply disruption and a structural shift toward fragmentation."
BP's oil trading result is expected to be exceptional in the first quarter of its financial year, driven by significant market volatility after Tehran's effective closure of the key strait of Hormuz shipping route.
Citi's upgrade reflects a broader geopolitical reality reshaping global energy markets. The Iran war is accelerating the flight of European and Asian buyers toward secure, long-term U.S. LNG supply contracts.
Rising inflation concerns, hawkish monetary policy signals, and escalating geopolitical tensions weighed on risk assets. Energy markets are adding to the pressure. Oil prices surged following renewed attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East, intensifying concerns about inflationary pressure.
The Iranian military's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Tehran has sent energy markets into turmoil. A quarter of the world's natural gas, a fifth of its crude oil, and tons of critical materials for fertilizers and other petroleum products pass through this strategic Persian Gulf waterway.
Weak performance in several service sectors offset gains in retail and wholesale trade, reinforcing concerns about the pace of economic recovery. Japan relies heavily on oil imports from the Middle East, making it particularly sensitive to disruptions in the region.
USDA estimates for major crops were largely unchanged from the previous month, resulting in muted market reactions. For wheat, the USDA maintained its U.S. production, supply, and ending stocks forecasts with no revisions. Global wheat production was adjusted slightly higher, largely due to increased output estimates in Ukraine and Kazakhstan, partially offset by a smaller Australian crop.
New York City drivers found themselves paying, on average, 31 cents more for a gallon of gas week-over-week, according to the American Automobile Association. The gallon price as of March 6 was $3.30, up from $2.99 on Feb. 27.
The death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026, per NPR reporting, sent immediate shockwaves through energy markets. WTI crude climbed from $61.60 on February 2 to $71.13 by March 2, and prediction markets now assign 97% probability to crude reaching $75 by end of March, with 81% confidence in a move to $80.
