#israeliran-conflict

#israeliran-conflict

In the early hours of 13 June, more than 200 Israeli fighter jets began pummeling Iran with bombs, lighting up the Tehran skyline and initiating a 12-day war that would leave hundreds dead. But for one user of the prediction market Polymarket, it was their lucky day. In the 24 hours before the strike occurred, they had bet tens of thousands of dollars on yes on the market Israel military action against Iran by Friday? when the prospect still seemed unlikely and odds were hovering at about 10%. After the strike, Polymarket declared that military action had been taken, and paid the user $128,000 for their lucky wager.

While Benjamin Netanyahu earlier this year achieved his dream of dragging the US into a military confrontation with Iran, it came at a steep and unprecedented cost for Israel. Seeing Netanyahu beg Donald Trump to be bailed out from a quagmire, a rising number of Americans openly acknowledge that Israel is not an ally but a liability. In September, the US's Arab allies also reached the conclusion that we Iranians have always underscored: Israel's recklessness is a threat to all.