#oil-supply-shock

#oil-supply-shock

Take that flow out of the system and Brent doesn't move five or ten dollars, it moves structurally higher. A spike toward $120 or beyond becomes realistic very quickly, and that resets inflation expectations globally.

China's stockpiling surged in 2025 due to relatively low oil prices tied to softer demand, rising geopolitical risks, and a new domestic energy law requiring more reserves.

Traders are simultaneously pricing in two contradictory scenarios: continued political de-escalation on one hand, and the possibility of renewed escalation on the other. This fragile balance leaves the market vulnerable to sudden movements, especially given oil prices' high sensitivity to geopolitical developments in the Middle East.

The IEA sees global oil demand falling by 80,000 barrels per day this year, compared with a projected year-on-year rise of 640,000 bpd in its previous monthly report.

There's no doubt that what's happening now is an order of magnitude bigger - in terms of potential fallout for oil markets - than Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The global benchmark Brent crude is trading around $88 Friday morning, up roughly $16 since military strikes against Iran began.

The US-Israeli war on Iran will have a profound impact on the global energy markets, sending the price of Brent crude oil soaring to nearly $120 per barrel.

Refiners will soon start the switch to so-called summer blends, which don't vaporize as easily, to meet air pollution requirements. It's more expensive and time-consuming to create fuel that's resistant to evaporation, explains Aixa Diaz, an AAA spokesperson. What's next: The seasonal cost rise typically starts at the end of February or early March as "spring break season kicks off and refineries start production of summer-blend gasoline," Diaz said via email.

QatarEnergy on Monday suspended LNG production following a drone attack, straining the global market. The measure followed Iranian drone attacks on a water tank at a power plant in Mesaieed Industrial City and an energy facility in Ras Laffan belonging to QatarEnergy, the world's largest LNG producer.