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8 hours agoNOAA Winter Forecast 2025-26: Graded for Ski Country
NOAA's winter forecast for 2025-26 accurately predicted California's warm season but failed in the Pacific Northwest and Northeast.
Cody Townsend has called Recent Imagery 'the most useful tool for finding snow.' He notes that it will not tell you snow quality, but it does show 'where it's melted out or freshly coated' and helps plan missions efficiently.
The Black Lantern Inn was a familiar place where I ate with my kids, sometimes once a week. My room was well beyond my expectations for a last-minute booking: a king-sized bed, separate living area, jacuzzi bath, and many thoughtful details, including several back issues of Skiing History Magazine to flip through.
Park City, Utah, one of the West's most beloved ski destinations, is having an unusually difficult season. For a state that prides itself on its snow, 2026 has started on an unexpectedly thin note. By this point in winter, rooftops are typically glazed in white and aspen groves disappear beneath Utah's signature "champagne powder." This year, that familiar scene is missing.
Kirkwood has had a pretty solid past few days, seeing 42 inches of snow through the past 7 days, 31 of which fell in the past 48 hours. As of April 13th, Kirkwood has 5 lifts spinning with 45 of 84 trails open to skiers and snowboarders.
Avalanche forecaster Matthias Walcher explained that water is now penetrating deep into the snowpack, weakening long-standing weak layers that formed earlier in the winter. This process significantly increases the likelihood of spontaneous wet avalanches, particularly on steep west-, north-, and east-facing slopes between 2,200 and 2,500 meters.
Oregon starts with denser snow and the best near-term accumulation at Mt. Bachelor and Timberline, then the whole Cascade chain turns colder as snow levels fall toward and below pass level during the midweek system.
By April 1, the state's long-term snow data showed conditions unlike anything previously recorded. Of the 64 manual snow course sites in Colorado with records stretching back more than 50 years, 60 either tied or set their lowest April 1 readings ever observed.
Chief executive Rob Katz described the winter as 'the most challenging across the Rockies that we have ever experienced,' citing the lowest snowfall in more than 30 years at resorts in Colorado and Utah. Limited terrain and warm temperatures reduced visits and spending across the company's destination resorts.
To get back to average snowpack, we essentially need to have the most snow that we've ever had for the last 30 years between now and mid-April. It would be extremely difficult for Colorado to get back to a normal/average snowpack. As an example, when looking at the Independence Pass SNOTEL site in central Colorado outside of Aspen, we typically have 13 inches of snow-water-equivalent at the end of February. This year, we only have 6.7 inches of SWE.
The midweek stretch looks like the most reliable window for fresh turns, with the steadiest snow lining up Wednesday night into Thursday and lighter add-ons into Friday. Snow levels run a little high early, then step down late week, so snow quality should improve as the storm cycle matures. Some areas could see the next wave begin as early as Sun night (02/15), but confidence drops quickly with lead time and placement.
Thursday night through Saturday trends warm and mostly quiet, and guidance is converging on that timing and lower-impact intensity. Expect only spotty lingering snow showers early, then long dry breaks with mountain temperatures generally in the upper 20s to lower 40s and snow levels often around 8,000 to 10,500 feet.
The recent winter storm that slammed North America over the weekend brought along heavy snowfall, delivering some serious snow totals to ski resorts and ski areas from the Rocky Mountains to New England. The past 24 hours brought just around 24 inches of snow to Mountain Creek Resort, creating a serious powder wonderland across the New Jersey ski area. As of January 26th, 43 trails and 8 lifts are open to skiers and snowboarders, with powder and machine groomed conditions found around the mountain.