Who is favored to win an Oscar, according to Kalshi and Polymarket

"The 98th Academy Awards are coming up, and for prediction market bettors, tens of millions of dollars are on the line. Since the nominees were announced on January 22, bettors on Polymarket and Kalshi have been wagering on which films, actors, directors, and more will claim the Oscar in each of the Academy's 24 categories. Prediction markets have experienced dramatic growth over the last year, drawing the attention of media companies, the ire of some state regulators, and the scrutiny of Washington lawmakers."

"In January, Polymarket partnered with the Golden Globes, and bettors on the site ultimately correctly predicted the winner in 26 out of 28 categories. The Oscars, hosted this year by Conan O'Brien, will air on Sunday, March 15, on ABC and Hulu. If bettors are correct, "Sinners" will take home four Oscars, while both "One Battle after Another" and "Frankenstein" are each set to win three."

"Where the odds stand for each category, as of late January Best Picture - "One Battle After Another" Paul Thomas Anderson's "One Battle After Another" is the odds-on favorite to win best picture, standing at 67% among bettors on both Polymarket and Kalshi. The next most likely winner is Ryan Coogler's "Sinners," which each platform gives a roughly 24% chance. Bettors have wagered more than $10 million on the Best Picture winner across the two platforms, the most of any category."

The 98th Academy Awards have attracted tens of millions of dollars of wagers on prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi since nominees were announced. Bettors have placed stakes across all 24 Academy categories, and prediction markets have grown rapidly over the past year, drawing attention from media companies, some state regulators, and Washington lawmakers. Polymarket partnered with the Golden Globes in January, and bettors correctly predicted 26 of 28 winners on that site. As of late January, One Battle After Another and Paul Thomas Anderson lead Best Picture and Best Director odds, while Timothée Chalamet and Jessie Buckley top acting markets. Bettors wagered over $10 million on Best Picture across both platforms.

Read at Business Insider