Major indices, including the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average, all recorded gains, with the Nasdaq delivering its strongest weekly performance since November.
Tariffs are generating tens of billions of dollars in revenue for the federal government. In the first five months of the fiscal year, the government raised $151 billion from tariffs, nearly four times as much as during the same period the previous year.
High energy prices are kryptonite for the housing market. Affordability, especially for those first-time home buyers, is now an elusive dream until oil prices come down and interest rates come down.
The pricing of 10-year inflation-protected Treasuries implies inflation of 2.34% over the next decade, up only slightly from 2.25% pre-war. In other words, only about a fifth of the rise in the 10-year yield this month is accounted for by investors anticipating higher inflation.
Markets remain fragile amid persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have pushed oil prices higher and revived concerns about inflation in Europe. While interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, attention could turn to the ECB's forward guidance and assessment of energy-driven price risks.
Sterling fell by 0.5% against the dollar, dropping below $1.33, as the US currency strengthened due to a flight to safety. The dollar index increased by 0.3%.
"The historical evidence reveals a striking pattern: government bonds have repeatedly generated substantial real losses during these extreme episodes. They have even underperformed equities and real estates which are traditionally regarded as risky assets."
The dollar stabilised to a certain extent today after retreating in the prior session, but could remain relatively volatile as markets react to geopolitical developments in the Middle East. Treasury yields were firmer following a pullback on Monday as well.
Since the US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, Tehran has launched a wave of ballistic missiles targeting Israel, US military bases, oil depots and other infrastructure across the Gulf region. Iranian attacks on several vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz have also dramatically reduced traffic in the narrow channel, through which about 20 percent of global oil and gas supplies transit.
This is not new news, of course, but many in the industry seem to be finally waking up to the hard truth that data-driven media buying, as we know it today, is severely under threat and has to change. Cookies power everything we do, from humble frequency capping through to complex multi-touch attribution models, ad personalisation and audience segmentation. They underpin most of the gains we've made in performance advertising, as well as brand advertising, over the past decade.
The expectations of a decrease in tensions triggered a pullback in oil prices, which in turn softened immediate concerns about inflation pressures. However, the broader geopolitical backdrop remains fragile, and any renewed escalation could quickly push oil prices, the dollar, and Treasury yields higher again.
The U.S. dollar's value has fallen 8% over the past year, as the price of gold has skyrocketed, said the WSJ Dollar Index. Some think it is a good thing. President Donald Trump said recently a weaker dollar is great. The idea is a weaker currency boosts exports and employment while a strong currency can throttle an economy. While the idea of a weaker dollar has had supporters over the decades, economists often argue gains can be eaten up by domestic inflation and deflation.
Crude oil breaking above the USD 100 threshold has revived inflation concerns, pushing US Treasury yields higher across the curve. However, Friday's labour market report revealed a significant deterioration in employment conditions, with the economy losing 92,000 jobs in February, its largest contraction in several months.
Iran's national currency, the rial, has completely collapsed against the U.S. dollar as the country's economic crisis worsens. The value of one rial is now worth $0.00 right now. On the open market, one U.S. dollar now trades for roughly 1.4 million rials, a collapse that has erased decades of purchasing power and fueled widespread unrest. The currency's plunge isn't new, but the pace of decline in 2025 and early 2026 has been dramatic.
The fall of the dollar, which has lost a fifth of its value against the euro since 2025, is the most tangible reflection of how money, through a series of shocks, has adapted to a worldthat of Donald Trumpwhere the old rules no longer apply. Conversely, the Republican's decision to nominate Kevin Warsh to chair the Fed is yet another sign that the White House regards Wall Street with respect.
Gold has been on a tear as the dollar is under pressure, raising questions about global confidence and market risk. The US economy and markets are unmatched in size. The dollar is the king of currencies, and US treasuries are often considered a safe-haven asset. But, investors appear to be reassessing that. This has weighed down on the greenback and cooled the stock markets.
