#federal-reserve-policy

#federal-reserve-policy

The S&P 500's performance in 2025 marked yet another blockbuster year after performing well in both 2023 and 2024. Many analysts thought that double-digit gains for a third straight year would be too unlikely, but the market ended up proving them wrong. 2026 is off to a great start for the S&P as well, though a correction is certainly overdue at this stage. But can the market prove bears wrong yet again?

The biggest driver for PCY over the next 12 months is U.S. interest rate trajectory. When the Fed cuts rates, two things benefit emerging market sovereign debt. First, U.S. Treasury yields fall, making PCY's 6.1% yield more attractive to income-focused investors. Second, rate cuts typically weaken the dollar, reducing the debt servicing burden for emerging market governments that borrow in dollars.

Sectors that showed notable job gains in December include food services and drinking places (+27,000 jobs), health care (+34,000 jobs) and social assistance (+17,000 jobs). On the other end of the spectrum, the retail trade sector lost 25,000 jobs in December. Residential building construction lost 4,200 jobs in December, although employment for residential specialty trade contractors rose by 1,100 jobs. The real estate sector also posted a small increase, adding 2,300 jobs in December.

Silver extended its rebound for a third consecutive session on Tuesday, supported by escalating geopolitical risks and persistent supply deficits. Developments in Latin America injected fresh geopolitical uncertainty into the market. Comments from President Trump also affected sentiment and could amplify safe-haven flows into precious metals. Meanwhile, tensions remain elevated across Eastern Europe and the Middle East, reinforcing silver's defensive appeal.

The reason mortgage rates are near yearly lows as we end the year is that the labor market has softened and mortgage spreads have returned to near-normal levels. Without these two variables, mortgage rates would have stayed higher for longer. My 2026 forecast is for the 10-year yield to range between 3.80% and 4.60%, and for mortgage rates to range from 5.75% to 6.75%.

The latest rally came after the U.S. launched strikes on Islamic State targets in Nigeria on Thursday, adding to other geopolitical tensions. Earlier in the week, the Trump administration continued to pile on more pressure on Venezuela by targeting additional oil tankers, squeezing a key source of revenue for the Maduro regime. Meanwhile, the Pentagon sent large numbers of special-operations aircraft, troops and gear into the Caribbean, sources told the Wall Street Journal.

These ETFs can complement your portfolio very well if you pair them up with popular lower-yield ETFs. Higher yields will become more important in the coming months as the Federal Reserve has shown more willingness to cut. The current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term will end in May 2026. He's expected to be replaced with a Trump appointee. As such, the next Fed Chair is very likely to be even more dovish on interest rates.

HORSLEY: This latest report suggests they were. It shows that employers added only 64,000 jobs in November. And a lot of those jobs were in health care, which tends to be pretty recession-proof, while more sensitive industries like manufacturing and transportation lost jobs during the month. Overall, it seems clear the pace of hiring has slowed pretty sharply since the beginning of the year.

The bitcoin price dropped sharply today after a brief pump near $90,000, sliding to $84,544 as the price sell-off continued into its second month. Bitcoin lost 2% over the past 24 hours. It remains 5% below its seven-day high of $89,220 and hovers near the week's low of $84,596. Trading volume reached $56 billion. Bitcoin's market capitalization stands at $1.69 trillion. The circulating supply is roughly 19.96 million BTC out of a total 21 million, according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data.

So the housing market faces some really significant challenges, and I don't know that, you know, a 25 basis point decline in the federal funds rate is going to make much of a difference for people. You know, housing supply is low. Many people have very, very low, low, low rate mortgages from the pandemic period, and they kept refinancing and caught the really low. So it's expensive to them to move. And you know, we're a ways away from that changing.

With all the chatter and commentary about the internet (or dot-com) bubble burst and even the great stock market crash of 1929, it's quite an unsettling time to be an investor in the markets, as the S&P nears new highs after a 2.3% gain for the month of October. For the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, it was an even brighter month, with the index nearly rising 5% in a month.

Silver prices declined for a third consecutive session on Tuesday, as investor focus shifted to recent statements from Federal Reserve officials and signs of easing US-China trade tensions. Fed officials, including Mary Daly and Lisa Cook, emphasized a data-dependent stance ahead of the December meeting. While both expressed support for the latest 25 bps cut, they cautioned that further moves would depend on incoming economic indicators.

U.S. stocks signaled another rally on Sunday night after the Trump administration negotiated a framework for a trade deal with China that should avoid mutual assured destruction. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered rough outlines of an agreement that include China easing rare earth export restrictions and buying "significant" amounts of U.S. soybeans in exchange for President Donald Trump removing his threat of adding 100% tariffs on China.

At the end of the second quarter, the average U.S. bank paid depositors an annual interest rate of 2.2%, according to Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation data. This is higher than the 0.2% rate two years ago but well below the Fed's 5.5% overnight rate. JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America reportedly paid 1.5% and 1.7% on average, respectively. Those lower payments to depositors generated roughly $1.1 trillion in additional revenue, about half of total bank income over the period, the Financial Times' calculations indicate.