#recession-risk

#recession-risk

"The algorithm has identified building permits as the most critical economic variable for predicting recessions. And while permits had been holding up reasonably well, as builders supported sales through interest rate buydowns and other incentives, inventories of unsold homes are now high and on the rise," Zandi warned. "In response, builders are pulling back, and permits have started to slump. They are now as low as they've been since the pandemic shutdowns."

It's not like there's going to be a recession ... right?

There are certain words you don't want to hear in a medical checkup, or in an investment bank's recession outlook: "stable but elevated." It's a phrase that could refer to blood pressure, even risk of a heart attack, a favorite metaphor of hedge-fund legend Ray Dalio, or in UBS' evaluation, risk of a recession.