#economic-outlook

#economic-outlook

Public sector net borrowing fell by £19.8 billion, or 13.1pc, to £132 billion over the 12 months to the end of March, the lowest level since 2022-23.

Nearly half of firms (48%) expected turnover to grow over the next 12 months in the first quarter of the year, up from 42% in the final quarter of 2025.

Monthly job growth averaged about 15,000 in 2025 and has risen to roughly 70,000 so far in 2026, although the data remains volatile and subject to revision.

U.S. equity markets delivered a strong performance over the past week, supported by improving geopolitical sentiment and renewed investor confidence, with all major indices recording gains exceeding 3%.

behind the recent jump are primarily the weak labour market numbers, but almost all the economic data has turned soft since the end of last year. Total nonfarm payroll employment edged down by 92,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.4 percent.

While homebuilder sentiment remains subdued after a 12-month grind that hasn't quite let up, Robert Dietz, Chief Economist for the National Association of Home Builders, offered guarded optimism in his take on housing economics' complex set of market drivers. In other words, the worst of the worst may be over, but don't expect a switch to flip. Not yet, anyway.

The UK economy returned to growth in November, expanding by 0.3 per cent after contracting in the month leading up to the autumn budget, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics. The increase in GDP exceeded economists' expectations of a modest 0.1 per cent rise and suggests that economic activity proved more resilient than many sentiment surveys had indicated in the run-up to the budget on 26 November.

Well, look, I think everyone can see in the last year that the world has changed, and we're not immune to that change. Whether it is wars in Europe and the Middle East, whether it is increased barriers to trade because of tariffs coming from the United States, whether it is the global cost of borrowing, we're not immune to any of those things.

Stocks have notched two consecutive weekly gains, with the S&P 500 hitting a fresh all-time high last week, as corporate earnings have continued to come in strong.

Gold prices have been trading sideways for almost three months, with slight declines as risk appetite improved, suggesting potential changes in investor sentiment.

Altria has a yield of 6.4%, making it one of the highest among major US companies, alongside Dow and Pfizer. However, Pfizer's stock is down 8% this year and Dow's has plummeted by 47%, with a recent dividend cut.

Investor sentiment in Germany rose more than expected in July, with the ZEW survey indicating a 5.2 points increase, reaching its highest level since February 2022.

U.S. stock futures dropped as Trump's threats of 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico prompted investors to reconsider trade war risks, with markets poised for declines.

Saudi Arabia, Russia and six other key members of the OPEC+ alliance announced on Saturday their decision to increase oil output in August by 548,000 barrels per day.